Climate Change: India speeds up mitigation efforts; 314/365 extreme weather events in 2022

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By Pradeep Kumar Panda

Bhubaneswar, May 4: Climate change has always been an integral part of human existence. With rapid industrialisation and urbanisation since the 19th century, climate change has acquired a new dimension, threatening the sustainability of life, livelihood and the surrounding ecosystem.

The rising incidence of extreme climate events in recent decades has raised greater public awareness about its adverse effects. Growing scientific evidence that climate change is also caused by human activities – a result of excessive burning of fossil fuels; deforestation; inappropriate agricultural practices, etc., has led to a global consensus on the need for coordinated policy actions, encompassing both adaptation and mitigation strategies.

Since the historic Paris Agreement of 2016, climate agenda has increasingly become target-oriented. India has embarked on an ambitious and targeted climate action plan while balancing its growth and environmental objectives. In line with the target of Net Zero emissions by 2070, India has updated its nationally determined contributions (NDCs), which aim at raising the share of renewable energy and reducing the carbon emissions intensity of GDP by 2030.

India presented its Long-Term Low Emission Development Strategy at the COP27, covering plans for expansion of green hydrogen production, electrolyser manufacturing capacity and increased use of biofuels. To strengthen solutions-based international cooperation, India has also launched and nurtured the International Solar Alliance, the Coalition for Disaster Resilient Infrastructure, and the Mission LiFE (Lifestyle for Environment).

India ranked seventh in the list of most affected countries in terms of exposure and vulnerability to climate risk events as per the Global Climate Risk Index 2021, but it is also the highest ranked G-20 country in its climate protection performance as per the Climate Change Performance Index 2023. This reflects the progress made on four parameters – greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions; renewable energy; energy use; and climate policy.

India has become the most populous country in the world. Preserving food and energy security amidst extreme climatic events while obtaining access to technology and critical raw materials required for successful green transition will, therefore, remain a key policy challenge for India. Climate change induced risks to macro-financial prospects of the country and the range of policy options available to mitigate climate risks require dedicated research.

Such research becomes even more critical in the context of the complexity and non-linearity of the ways in which climate, economy, financial systems and related policies operate.

Climate change is manifesting itself at an alarming scale and pace globally. Emerging and developing economies are the most vulnerable in terms of technological capabilities and access to finance for adaptation and mitigation. There has been a significant increase in climate action, both multilaterally and in individual countries.

Alongside fiscal policies, recent years have seen a growing experimentation with regulatory instruments and hence, the role of government in combating climate change is coming to the fore. Climate change is upon us. According to the World Meteorological Organisation (WMO), the period 2015-22 is the warmest on record. Despite the cooling effects of La Nina into its third year, 2022 was the eighth consecutive year in which annual global temperature reached at least 1 degree Celsius above pre-Industrial Revolution levels, fuelled by ever-rising greenhouse gas (GHG) concentrations and accumulated heat.

In the European Alps, glacier melt records were broken in 2022. Switzerland lost about six per cent of its glacier ice volume between 2021 and 2022. For the first time in history, there was no accumulation of fresh ice even at the very highest measurement sites (WMO, 2023). Sea levels increased by about 5 millimetres during January 2021 – August 2022 due to increasing ice melt. In 2021, the upper 2000 metres of the ocean continued to warm to record levels.

Furthermore, 58 per cent of the ocean surface experienced at least one marine heat wave during 2022. There was a drop in the Antarctic sea ice extent to 1.92 million km2, which was the lowest level on record and was almost 1 million km2 below the long-term average. In East Africa, rainfall was below average in four wet seasons consecutively, the longest in 40 years (WMO, 2023). The persistent drought resulted in the worst levels of food crisis for an estimated 18.4-19.3 million people (WMO, 2022). During 1970-2019, weather, climate and water hazards reported deaths and 74 per cent of total reported economic losses (WMO, 2021). These hazards have undermined livelihoods and infrastructure as well as health, food, energy and water security. Human well-being is endangered and so is the future of the planet.

India has faced its hottest February in 2023 since record-keeping began in 1901 (IMD, 2023). In March, large parts of the country experienced hailstorms and torrents of unseasonal rain, leading to apprehensions of extensive damage to standing crops. According to India’s Centre for Science and Environment (CSE), the country experienced extreme weather events on 314 of 365 days of 2022, which claimed 3,026 lives, affected 1.96 million hectares of crop area and 4,23,249 houses, and killed over 69,899 animals.

Central India witnessed the highest intensity of extreme weather events. Among the states, Madhya Pradesh had the highest number of days with extreme weather, but Himachal Pradesh from the north-west region reported the highest number of deaths. In the eastern and north-eastern regions, Assam suffered from the highest number of damaged houses and animal deaths. In the southern peninsula region, Karnataka experienced extreme weather events on 91 days during the year and accounted for 53 per cent of the total crop area affected across the country.

In 2022, India recorded its seventh wettest January since 1901. March was the third driest and warmest ever in 121 years. Eastern and north-eastern India saw their warmest and driest July in 121 years. These regions also recorded their second warmest August and the fourth warmest September in 2022. India seems to be at the watermark of climate change – rather

than single events, it is the increased frequency of extreme weather occurrences that is breaking the back of our capability to cope with natural disasters. There is a definite rising trend; but more than the events themselves, India is grappling “economics of climate change”, relating to (a) assessing the economic impact of climate change on growth and development; and (b) economic assessment of climate change policies. Seminal work attempting to understand the economics of climate change has been undertaken through the Integrated Assessment Models (IAMs) such as the Dynamic Integrated model of Climate and the Economy (DICE) (Nordhaus, 1992; Stern, 2007).

Affirmative action in pursuit of the climate as a global policy good is of even more recent vintage. The Paris Agreement of 2016 has been a landmark in achieving the first legally binding international treaty on climate change for all signatories, a successor to the Kyoto Protocol of 2005. This Agreement has introduced long-term goals regarding the reduction of GHG emissions, and provision of finance to developing countries by developed countries to adapt to and mitigate climate change. Despite the slow pace of implementation, unfulfilled commitments towards collectively financing climate action and vulnerability/discord/knowledge gaps, the Agreement has offered a glimmer of hope about the transition towards a greener cleaner world.

India’s development strategy since independence has left certain environmental imprints. This recognition is belatedly spurring investments in environment-friendly alternative sources of energy and in climate science and technology. Today, India is striving to consolidate its position in the ongoing global climate policy discourse with an urgency not seen before as the world races to head off the debilitating effects of climate change.