China-Russia Signal Trump on Ukraine with Red Lines on Japan

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Finland-based analyst Havrén says Beijing validated Moscow’s Ukraine narrative while warning that any Trump-brokered deal will need China’s consent.

By TRH Foreign Affairs Desk

New Delhi, December 3, 2025 —Strategic analyst Sari Arho Havrén in her analysis on the 20th round of China-Russia strategic security consultation that took place in Moscow between Wang Yi and Sergei Shoigu said that the two nations sent a clear message to US President of deepening ties. Wang was in Moscow while Steve Witkoff, the US envoy for the Middle Esat, was meeting with Putin.

“The Chinese readout is out, and it signals that the Sino-Russian relationship is structurally deepening and is not merely transactional. However, Wang Yi was also in Moscow to remind Russia of China’s leverage,” added Havrén in her analysis shared on LinkedIn.

For Russia, she stated that “the overlap of the simultaneous meetings sent a clear message to Washington: Moscow does not negotiate its core interests in isolation; Beijing is entirely in the loop and has a de facto co-signature on any outcome.”

“The most concrete new element is the readout is a paragraph on Japan. Both sides pledge to firmly uphold the fruits of victory in World War II and counter any attempts by Japanese militarism to make a comeback,” added Havrén.

She noted Shoigu’s reaffirmation of full support for China’s positions on Taiwan, Tibet, Xinjiang, and Hong Kong. The analyst spotlighted that Russia’s endorsements of China’s core concerns came alongside the Japan section, linking the two issues: Tokyo’s recent rhetoric on Taiwan as an existential threat to Japan is now framed as a joint China-Russia red line.

“On Ukraine, China between the lines validates Russia’s maximalist interpretation of ‘root causes’ (eg NATO rollback, Ukrainian neutrality, recognition of territorial gains) while keeping its own hands clean for any future mediation role,” she added.

Summarise the December 2 China-Russia meeting outcome, Havrén spotlighted the “signal to the Trump administration that any Ukraine deal requires Beijing’s acquiescence, because Russia will not move without China’s green light.”

She also stressed that meeting formalised a joint China-Russia front against Japan, especially on Taiwan contingency planning. “The meeting also locked in the narrative of a deepening and ascending bilateral relationship that is immune to US wedge-driving/reverse Nixon/Kissinger,” added the Finland-based geopolitical analyst.

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