China, India swap population pole position; rivalry on economy in focus
By Manish Anand
New Delhi, April 22: India may have already surpassed China in becoming the most populous country in the world. The swap of the population pole position has come at a time when China is six times bigger economy than India, and the race to bridge the gap may gain pace as New Delhi makes its intent clear during G20 to take a flight of its role in the global economy.
The March unemployment rate in China for the youth came at 19.6 per cent. This is closer to 19.9 per cent rate seen in July last year when most parts of China was under lockdown due to the ‘Zero Covid Policy’. China had surprised the observers by bouncing back to 4.5 per cent GDP growth in the last fiscal. The Communist regime of China is aiming for a five per cent GDP growth in the 2023-24 fiscal.
The unemployment rate in India is 4.2 per cent. The Indian GDP growth is being pegged at 6.5 per cent in the ongoing fiscal. Thereafter, the interest rate is likely to go on a lower trajectory to give a boost to the growth rate. China has already been on an interest rate cutting spree to kick-start the economy, which was battered by the ‘Zero Covid Policy’.
The Chinese population is projected to stay on a declining path. The Indian population is expected to keep rising at least till 2040. By the time the Indian population peaks at around 1.62 billion, India is expected to have more than 300 million more people. Half of the Indian population currently is below 30 years of age. This suggests that India has another three decades to count on to turn the tide on economic scale in its bid to become the third largest economy by 2035.
“A quarter of its (China) population is estimated to be 60 years of age by 2030 along with a steady decline in the young workforce, which has come down to 62 per cent from 70 per cent,” wrote Kriti Mutreja for the Niti Tanta, a think-tank.
Several parts of the economic zones of China are reporting workers’ shortage on account of high wages. China is also seen to be losing the low-wage advantage. “Manufacturing chases low-wage, and China may be losing this advantage,” remarked Shyam Sharan, India’s former foreign secretary during an interaction with scribes at the Indian International Centre.
While China is busy blunting the de-coupling focus of the western world, India is seeking realignment of the global supply chains to become an alternative. This is driven by the argument that it was the US which helped China become the factory of the world, and now the two countries are baying at each other.
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