Central Asia: Next Asian Tiger or Mirage of “Cookbook” Stats?

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Former Kyrgyz PM hails record growth across the region, but skeptics warn of inflated numbers, runaway inflation, and fragile dependence on remittances—raising doubts over whether Central Asia is truly the next Asian Tiger.

By TRH Global Affairs Desk

NEW DELHI, September 13, 2025 — Central Asia’s leaders are trumpeting a new economic dawn. Former Kyrgyz Prime Minister Djoomart Otorbaev, writing on LinkedIn, described the region’s surge in growth as “the next Asian Tiger in the making.”

Recent figures from the National Statistical Committees paint a picture of stunning momentum—Kyrgyzstan leading with 11.7% growth, Tajikistan with 8.1%, and Uzbekistan at 7.2%. From construction booms to record lending and soaring ICT services, the numbers seem to herald a transformation.

Kazakhstan, the region’s largest economy, posted a lower but still robust 6.2% growth, driven by transport and industry, while Turkmenistan maintained steady expansion at 6.3%. Together, these economies are underpinned by rising domestic demand, demographic strength, and a population projected to surpass 100 million by 2035.

But not everyone is convinced. Chris Rickleton, a Central Asia journalist, cautioned that Tajikistan and Turkmenistan’s statistics “come from the best Soviet traditions of cookbookery,” questioning their credibility. He noted that Kyrgyzstan’s growth is extraordinary but heavily reliant on re-export trade, high gold prices, and remittances from Russia. In Kazakhstan, inflation—spurred by Russia’s war and tax hikes—continues to erode real incomes.

Renaud Gaucher, a researcher, added that even the region’s reported “happiness” may be misleading, arguing that World Happiness Report metrics confuse contentment with true well-being.

Central Asia, then, finds itself at a crossroads. Is this the birth of the next Asian Tiger—or an economic mirage built on shaky numbers, inflationary pressures, and geopolitical dependence? The answer may define the region’s role in the global economy over the next decade.

Otorbaev is convinced that the region is on way to become the next Asian Tigers. The ASEAN nations are known as Asian Tigers after their rapid growth in 1990s with thrust on exports brought the East Asian nations under global focus.

“Trade services are booming, led by Kyrgyzstan (+12.1%) and Uzbekistan (+11.1%), with strong results also in Turkmenistan (+9.9%), Tajikistan (+9%), and Kazakhstan (+8.4%),” added Otorbaev. He also stated that “retail turnover tells a similar story: Kyrgyzstan again surging ahead with a remarkable 19.9% growth, followed by Turkmenistan (+12.7%), Uzbekistan (+9.7%), Kazakhstan (+6.6%), and Tajikistan (+6.2%).”

“Lending activity has also expanded at an impressive pace, underscoring household and business confidence—Kyrgyzstan’s lending volumes skyrocketed by 48.3%. In comparison, Kazakhstan (+21.9%), Uzbekistan (+16.5%), Tajikistan (+19.1%), and Turkmenistan (+19.0%) all posted double-digit gains,” argued Otorbaev.

These figures illustrate the resilience of Central Asia’s economies and their growing dynamism, driven by expanding domestic demand and a renewed investment cycle, he asserted.

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