Carney’s Snap Poll Gamble: Will Liberals Win or Poilievre Surge

Canadian Federal Election: A Volatile Race Shaped by Trump and Carney

By TRH News Desk

New Delhi, April 20, 2025: The 2025 Canadian federal election, set for April 28, has emerged as one of the most unpredictable and emotionally charged campaigns in recent history.

Triggered by Prime Minister Mark Carney’s snap election call on March 23, the 37-day campaign has been dominated by external pressures. US President Donald Trump’s trade tariffs and annexation rhetoric weigh on poll campaigns.

Internal shifts, including Carney’s ascent to Liberal leadership following Justin Trudeau’s resignation, also bear imprints in the Canadian politics.

With just over a week until Canadians head to the polls, the race remains tight, with polls showing a Liberal lead but no clear path to a majority. Political observers have described this election as a referendum on leadership amid crises.

Canadian commentators have noted voter sentiment swinging dramatically in response to global and domestic challenges. “The Liberal Party of Canada sacrificed Canada and Canadians to pull off their migrant policies hoping we wouldn’t notice or understand what was happening,” said John Smith, a Canada-based political observer, in a post on X.

Smith stated that “our dollar plummeted, interest soared and our prices skyrocketed”. He summed up top issues in the elections – economy that is in dire straits, price rise with inflation rising, and a tweak in immigration policy that hurt the education industry of Canada.

A Campaign Upended by Trump

The election’s narrative has been heavily shaped by Trump’s aggressive economic policies, including a 25 per cent tariff on Canadian goods and provocative comments about Canada becoming the “51st state”.

These developments sparked a wave of patriotism, propelling the Liberals, under Carney’s leadership, to an unexpected resurgence. As Éric Grenier, a political analyst at The Writ, noted, “This shift would be among the biggest we’ve seen in such a short period of time in Canadian history… It isn’t just a question of a leadership honeymoon.”

Grenier attributes much of the Liberal surge to Trump’s influence, which has reframed the election around national unity and economic stability.

The Conservative Party, led by Pierre Poilievre, had enjoyed a commanding lead in polls for nearly two years, capitalizing on dissatisfaction with Trudeau’s leadership and issues like inflation and housing affordability. However, Trump’s actions disrupted their momentum.

Political columnist Robyn Urback observed on social media that the Conservatives “are still waging the election campaign they never got to have”, struggling to pivot from their anti-Trudeau messaging to a platform addressing the new US-Canada trade war.

Latest Poll Predictions

Recent polls indicate a neck-and-neck race, with the Liberals holding a slight edge. According to a Leger survey conducted April 11–14, 2025, the Liberals lead with 43 per cent of voting intentions, compared to 38 per cent for the Conservatives, a narrowing gap from a seven-point lead the previous week.

The Angus Reid Institute’s April 4–7 poll showed the Liberals at 46 per cent and the Conservatives at 36 per cent, with the NDP and Bloc Québécois trailing at 7 per cent each. Ipsos reported similar numbers, with the Liberals at 46 per cent and Conservatives at 34 per cent.

Seat projections, however, highlight the complexity of Canada’s first-past-the-post system. The Liberals’ more efficient vote distribution gives them an advantage in translating votes into seats. Philippe Fournier’s 338Canada model, updated March 25, projected the Liberals winning 183 seats, enough for a majority. The Conservatives were estimated winning 130 seats, with the NDP potentially dropping to just 4 seats from their current 24.

The CBC News Poll Tracker, as of April 17, also suggested a Liberal advantage, though it cautioned that regional variations and polling errors could alter outcomes.

Political Observers Weigh In

Pollsters and analysts have emphasized the emotional and volatile nature of this election. Frank Graves, a veteran Canadian pollster, told POLITICO, “There’s three things that win an election. Number one is emotion, number two is emotion, and number three is emotion,” quoting Clinton pollster Stanley Greenberg.

Graves highlighted the role of disinformation and populist sentiments, noting that Conservative supporters are “25 times more likely” to hold favourable views of Trump or believe in conspiracy theories, such as government cover-ups of vaccine deaths or activist-driven forest fires. This polarization, he argues, has made the electorate susceptible to rapid shifts in sentiment.

Nik Nanos of Nanos Research described the election as a move toward a “two-party system,” with the Liberals and Conservatives dominating voter support at the expense of smaller parties like the NDP, Bloc Québécois, and Greens.

“This election shows Canada is moving toward a two-party system [federally],” Nanos told POLITICO, predicting “possible electoral devastation” for the NDP.

The NDP’s collapse, with polls showing them at 7–11 per cent, has bolstered the Liberals, particularly in urban and progressive ridings.

Key Issues and Voter Priorities

While Trump’s tariffs have dominated headlines, domestic issues remain critical. A Leger survey found that 47 per cent of Canadians prefer a Liberal win, with 32 per cent favouring a majority and 14 per cent a minority government. Inflation and cost of living top voter concerns (25 per cent), followed by health care (17 per cent), housing affordability (14 per cent), and immigration (7 per cent).

Carney has positioned himself as a steady hand, leveraging his experience as former Bank of Canada and Bank of England governor. Polls show him leading Poilievre on managing US relations (46 per cent vs. 28 per cent) and navigating the economy (44 per cent vs. 31 per cent).

Poilievre, however, is seen as stronger on understanding Canadians (33 per cent vs. 27 per cent) and fixing immigration (35 per cent vs. 26 per cent).

The Road Ahead

With advance polling underway from April 18–21 and the campaign entering its final stretch, the election remains fluid. Carney’s decision to distance himself from Trudeau’s policies, such as scrapping the carbon tax, has helped reposition the Liberals as centrist and pragmatic.

Poilievre, meanwhile, faces challenges in countering the Liberal narrative of national unity against external threats. As one observer noted, “The avenues forward are less clear” for Poilievre after losing the “easy political targets” of Trudeau and the carbon tax.

The 2025 election is a high-stakes contest defined by rapid shifts in public mood and unprecedented external pressures. While polls currently favor the Liberals, the volatility of the campaign suggests that the outcome is far from certain.

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