Canada’s 2025 Election Trends Signal Brighter India Relations

Canada’s NDP Faces Steep Decline in 2025 Election Polls 

By Manish Anand

New Delhi, April 21, 2025: With a week to go for the Canada election, India may cheer for a likely tectonic shift in Canadian politics. Poll pundits concur that Canada is now firmly back to a bipolar politics.

Diplomatic czars in New Delhi may also sigh a relief at the predicted decimation of NDP in the Canada election. The NDP led by Jagmeet Singh is heading for a worst poll outcome in the Canada election.

Nik Nanos of Nanos Research described the election as a move toward a “two-party system”, with the Liberals and Conservatives dominating voter support at the expense of smaller parties like the NDP, Bloc Québécois, and Greens.

“This election shows Canada is moving toward a two-party system [federally],” Nanos told POLITICO, predicting “possible electoral devastation” for the NDP. The NDP’s collapse, with polls showing them at 7–11 per cent, has bolstered the Liberals, particularly in urban and progressive ridings.

Canada heads toward the April 28 federal election. Polls signal a grim outlook for the New Democratic Party (NDP), with support plummeting to single digits.

Recent surveys, including Mainstreet Research (NDP at 7 per cent) and Abacus Data (11 per cent), project the party risks losing official party status in Parliament, potentially dropping below the 12-seat threshold. This marks a sharp fall from its 24 seats in 2021.

Political observers in Canada stated that “the NDP’s downturn stems from multiple factors. The abrupt end of its confidence-and-supply agreement with the Liberals in 2024 eroded voter trust, painting the party as opportunistic.”

Leader Jagmeet Singh’s favourability has slid, with Angus Reid reporting 56 per cent unfavourable views, particularly among men.

While NDP wasn’t part of the Justin Trudeau-led government under which India-Canada relations slid to abyss, a political reset is now not ruled out. Sikh leaders with anti-India bias, however, constitute a significant space within the Liberals of Carney, who is leading over Conservative Party, led by Pierre Poilievre. The lead margin is narrowing as the poll approaches per pollsters.

The emerging bipolar politics in Canada per political observers squeeze out smaller outfits from dictating terms with either of the two major parties. India officially had accused the Trudeau-led government of pandering to radical Sikh leaders as a part of an appeasement politics.

India may wish for a win for Poilievre who had assailed Trudeau for his sledgehammering of Canada-India relations. But Carney is harvesting gains from patriotism surge in Canada on US President Donald Trump’s rhetoric.

But even if Carney leads Liberals to a win, decimation of the NDP could sober the Canadian politics for a reset in India-Canada relations. John Smith, a political observer, pinned down a tweak in immigration policy by Trudeau for taking Canada on a path of worsening economy. The tweak was a fallout of ebbing India-Canada relations per observers.

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About The Author

Manish Anand

Manish Anand is a senior journalist with more than two decades of hardcore reporting on beats such as Prime Minister’s Office, Parliament, BJP, Congress, Planning Commission, NITI Aayog, and scores of Union Ministries.

His past has been with The New Indian Express, The Asian Age/Deccan Chronicle, and The Statesman.

For about 15 years, Manish was also a regular commentator and host for talks on AIR on foreign affairs.

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