Canada Liberals Gain with ‘Elbows Up’ Ice Hockey Poll Strategy
Prime Minister of Canada Mark Carney of Liberals during an election campaign (Image credit X.com)
‘Elbows Up’ Campaign Heats Up Canada’s Election as Liberals Hold Narrow Lead
By TRH News Desk
New Delhi, April 27, 2025: With a day to go for Canada’s federal election, the Liberal Party’s “Elbows Up” campaign has become a focal point, stirring both patriotic fervour and skepticism amid a tense race dominated by US President Donald Trump’s tariff threats.
With polls showing a tight contest between Prime Minister Mark Carney’s Liberals and Pierre Poilievre’s Conservatives, experts are divided on the campaign’s impact on voters and its effectiveness in addressing Canada’s economic challenges.
The “Elbows Up” slogan, debuted in a Liberal Party ad featuring comedian Mike Myers alongside Carney, aims to rally Canadians against Trump’s aggressive trade rhetoric, including threats of annexation and tariffs.
Broadcaster John Simpson in a post on X said: “Elbows Up, a slogan which is appearing everywhere in Canada now, means ‘get ready to defend yourselves’. It comes from ice hockey, the exciting, aggressive sport invented in Canada.”
Simpson further stated that “Canadians are quiet people, but, as their enemies have found, it’s unwise to rile them.”
Trump’s return to the White House in January brought the tariff jitters to the world market. But he punched the nose of Liberals in Canada, first by making the neighbouring nation 51st state and then by sweeping tariffs.
“Standing strong, elbows up,” Carney has repeated in speeches, framing the election as a test of Canada’s resilience against its southern neighbour.
Experts offered mixed reactions to the campaign’s messaging. One political analyst noted, “The ‘Elbows Up’ ad taps into Canadian identity, but it risks being seen as performative when people are worried about jobs and affordability.”
Another user, a trade policy expert, cautioned, “Slogans won’t shield Canada from a trade war. Carney needs a concrete plan, not just hockey metaphors.”
These sentiments reflect a broader concern that the campaign, while emotionally resonant, may not address the systemic issues — like Canada’s lagging productivity, flagged by Bank of Canada Senior Deputy Governor Carolyn Rogers as a “break the glass” emergency — leaving the country vulnerable to economic blows from the US.
The campaign’s timing is critical, as recent polls show a tightening race. According to the latest Abacus Data poll conducted April 18-21, the Liberals lead with 40% support among decided voters, followed by the Conservatives at 37%, with the NDP at 11% and the Bloc Québécois at 6%.
Among voters most certain to cast a ballot, the Liberals’ lead widens to 42% against the Conservatives’ 37%. A Nanos poll from April 21-23 reported the Liberals at 43.7% and the Conservatives at 36.3%, with the NDP trailing at 10.7%.
CBC’s Poll Tracker, updated April 25, projects the Liberals winning 151-226 seats, with a central projection of 191— surpassing the 170 needed for a majority, while betting odds give the Liberals an 85-95% chance of victory.
Pollster Frank Graves, who detected an early Conservative decline in January, told POLITICO that Trump’s influence has reshaped the race. “We saw a straight-line movement for the Liberals since January, when the Conservatives had a 25-point lead,” Graves said, attributing the shift to a patriotic backlash against Trump.
Poilievre’s affordability-focused platform
The “Elbows Up” campaign has also drawn criticism for its lack of substance. On X, a user identifying as an economist remarked, “Carney’s ‘elbows up’ is a distraction. Canada’s productivity crisis needs policy, not slogans.” This aligns with broader economic warnings: the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development recently slashed Canada’s growth outlook, citing US trade uncertainties. With Trump’s tariffs threatening mass layoffs and a potential plunge in the Canadian dollar, experts argue that the campaign’s patriotic tone may not translate into votes if voters demand more tangible solutions.
Despite these concerns, the Liberals’ lead in key regions like Ontario, Quebec, and British Columbia — where they are projected to win up to 93 of Ontario’s 122 seats, per 338Canada — positions them favourably. Carney’s personal approval, with a net impression of +12 per Abacus Data, also outpaces Poilievre’s, giving the Liberals a narrative edge.
However, with 55% of Canadians still expressing a desire for change, the “Elbows Up” campaign’s ability to sustain momentum remains uncertain as the election enters its final day.
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