China FM Wang Yi addresses after 14th NPC (image credit X China MFA)
By Manish Anand
New Delhi, March 12: India and China have held 21 rounds of talks between the military commanders to resolve the standoff in Eastern Ladakh. Diplomatic community is now growing wary of the Chinese designs in prolonging the resolution of the border standoff.
Samir Tata, founder of a US-based International Political Risk Analytics, in an article for Rusi has argued that there are distressing signs on the horizon to reveal specter of second China-India War. He has essentially underlined that China could grab land in eastern Ladakh to further its goal for energy security to failproof the pathway to Iran through parts of Pakistan occupied Kashmir.
Union Minister for External Affairs Subhramanyam Jaishankar in a discussion last evening said that the border tension “has not served either of us well”. He has been quoted by news agencies having said that India seeks a fair and reasonable outcome which is respectable and also affirms recognition of the Line of Actual Control (LAC).
Jaishankar often says that India and China bilateral relations cannot be normal when the border is tense. China has repeatedly asked India to de-hyphenate bilateral relations from the prevailing tension on the border.
Ma Jia, the de-facto Chinese envoy in New Delhi, had invited curiosity by asserting that the bilateral trade between India and China had been at record high, touching $136 billion in 2022. The balance of trade, as always, is heavily in favour of China, having exceeded $100 billion already. China will also be sending finally an ambassador in New Delhi after a gap of 15 months.
But Tata in his article for Rusi asks “where will the next war be”, and answers, saying: “If Taiwan comes to mind, think again. The second China-India war will most likely be fought in the eastern sector of Ladakh in India’s far north-western region sometime between 2025 and 2030”. He further asserts that the military modernization programme of China will possibly be wrapped up by 2027.
China, incidentally, is stepping up defence budget even while its economy is bearing the heavy weight of public debt. International defence watchdogs estimate that China may have already exceeded the annual defence spending of $300 billion. In contrast, India’s annual budget is just $78 billion.
With Pakistan now being a playground of China following the mortgaging of the Islamic country, Beijing appears speeding up its long-known strategy to encircle India. With Mohammed Muizzu spearheading ant-India campaign, the News Week reported that China and Maldives as part of the military assistance programme will enhance the presence of the Chinese military strength in the Indian Ocean archipelago.
Former Army Chief Mukund Narwane in an interaction with media at the Indian International Centre a few months ago had said that no country has fought wars on two fronts and won. China by almost burying Pakistan into its debt-trap is increasingly seen gaining heft to manipulate the rulers in Islamabad.
Tata predicts in his article that “the 2025–2030 timeframe represents the optimum window of opportunity for China and the maximum period of vulnerability for India”. He spotlights “the significant asymmetric balance of power in favour of China”. “Absent a modus vivendi between these two nuclear-armed adversaries, conventional war (and the spectre of nuclear war) will be impossible to avoid,” grimly notes Tata.
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