BRICS at a Crossroads: Rio Summit Highlights Growing Divisions

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Absence of Xi and Putin, rising internal tensions, and diverging national priorities raise questions about the bloc’s future

By TRH Global Affairs Desk

NEW DELHI, July 8, 2025 — What was once envisioned as a bold alliance of emerging powers challenging the West’s dominance is now showing signs of strategic fatigue and geopolitical drift. The 2025 BRICS summit, held in Rio de Janeiro on July 6–7, was expected to be a show of unity and assertiveness against a backdrop of intensifying global tensions. Instead, it ended up reinforcing doubts about the bloc’s coherence, leadership, and long-term viability.

Giles Toubol, a geopolitical analyst, calls the summit “a missed opportunity for unity and global influence.” His observation comes at a time when the global order is in flux—Washington has hiked tariffs on South Korean and Japanese goods, hinting at broader economic realignments, and the space for emerging economies to assert themselves is narrowing.

The Power Vacuum at the Top

The most striking signal of BRICS’ uncertain future was the absence of its two most influential leaders: China’s Xi Jinping and Russia’s Vladimir Putin. Xi, who cited a “busy domestic agenda,” chose to remain in Beijing, underscoring China’s inward turn as it grapples with economic headwinds and political complexities. Putin, limited by the ICC arrest warrant hanging over him, participated only via video from Moscow.

Their absence left India, Brazil, and South Africa to carry the summit’s political weight. “While all three nations are influential in their regions, their competing interests and lack of coordinated vision weakened the bloc’s messaging,” wrote Toubol in an analysis on LinkedIn.

Discord Beneath the Surface

Toubol points to the widening fault lines within BRICS. These include:

Sino-Indian Tensions: Ongoing border disputes have eroded trust between the two Asian giants.
Russo-Brazilian Friction: Brazil’s positioning on Ukraine continues to diverge from Russia’s aggressive stance.
Energy Policy Split: While Russia and new member Saudi Arabia push hydrocarbons, Brazil is aligning more with green energy transitions.

These fissures were evident in the bloc’s cautious response to U.S. tariff escalations. Rather than a unified countermeasure, BRICS issued only a mild protest. India, wary of jeopardizing tech sector ties with Washington, opted for restraint. Brazil, prioritizing its agricultural exports, also avoided confrontation. As Toubol notes, “This divergence of interests illustrates the limits of a joint response.”

Leadership Without Leaders

The summit in Rio was billed as a chance for BRICS to present itself as a credible alternative to the G7. But without the presence of Xi or Putin, and in the absence of a clear agenda, the grouping appeared rudderless, added the geopolitics analyst.

India and Brazil’s push for permanent seats on the UN Security Council remains stalled, largely due to lukewarm support from China. Meanwhile, the much-discussed BRICS currency—intended to challenge the dollar—remains more aspiration than action, hampered by lack of trust, economic disparity, and political will.

Drifting Toward Irrelevance?

Toubol warns not of an imminent collapse, but of a “silent erosion” of the bloc’s relevance. The signs are already apparent:

India deepens its strategic and technological ties with the U.S.
China pivots towards Central Asia to reinforce its own sphere of influence.
Brazil continues its careful balancing act between the Global North and South.

Deprived of dynamic leadership and a cohesive policy direction, BRICS risks becoming what Toubol calls “a mere forum for dialogue: useful but unfit for shaping global governance.”

The Road Ahead

Despite internal discord, none of the member states appear ready to walk away from BRICS. The platform still offers symbolic value and periodic diplomatic utility. But unless it addresses its leadership vacuum, resolves strategic contradictions, and articulates a shared vision, its capacity to influence global affairs will remain limited.

The Rio summit was meant to signal strength. Instead, it exposed the fault lines that could define BRICS’ slow fade from relevance—not with a bang, but with a whisper.

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