BJP’s Power Puzzle: Why Arithmetic May Decide Modi’s Successor

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As nearly 75 Rajya Sabha seats fall vacant in 2026, BJP’s caste balance strategy signals that the post-Modi succession race may bypass Amit Shah and Yogi Adityanath

By TRH Political Desk

New Delhi, December 26, 2025 — Manish Anand in his YouTube analysis for The Raisina Hills has noted that “a silent but consequential political churn is underway within the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) as 2025 draws to a close and India steps into 2026.”

Nearly 75 Rajya Sabha seats will fall vacant in 2026, including those held by several Union ministers, Anand said, adding: “This alone signals a reshaping of Parliament’s Upper House—and possibly, the Modi government’s Cabinet.” But beneath this institutional reset, Anand argued, lies a deeper question gripping political observers: Who succeeds Narendra Modi, if and when the moment arrives?

“The appointment of 45-year-old Nitin Nabin as BJP’s working president has reignited this debate. Speculation has swiftly followed: Is Amit Shah still a contender? Can Uttar Pradesh Chief Minister Yogi Adityanath realistically emerge as prime minister? Or is the BJP’s internal logic pointing elsewhere,” Anand framed questions buzzing on political streets.

To understand this, one must look beyond personalities, Anand argued, as he sought focus on “the BJP’s most consistent internal compass— caste arithmetic.”

Since its rise to power in 1998 under Atal Bihari Vajpayee, Anand reminded that “the BJP has followed an unwritten but remarkably consistent rule: the party president and the prime minister do not come from the same caste block.”

“Vajpayee, an upper-caste leader, presided over a party where OBC leaders dominated the organisational structure. Under Narendra Modi—himself the BJP’s most powerful OBC face—the party presidents have largely come from so-called upper castes, from Amit Shah to Jagat Prakash Nadda,” Anand noted.

This balance is not accidental, he said. “The BJP’s political expansion has been led by OBC consolidation, with Modi positioned as its singular, pan-India symbol. To preserve this equilibrium, the party has ensured that organisational control remains with leaders from traditional core support bases, particularly in North India, with the party chief from upper castes,” argued Anand.

Seen through this lens, Nitin Nabin’s elevation is telling. “If, as expected, he becomes full-time BJP president by as late as mid-2026—with a tenure extending into the 2029 Lok Sabha election—the caste balance formula becomes even more rigid,” added Anand.

A party president from an upper-caste background will logically require an OBC face for the prime ministerial post if a transition occurs, he added.

This is where the road narrows, argued Anand, for Amit Shah and Yogi Adityanath. “Both are influential, mass leaders—but both fall outside the caste calculus currently anchoring the BJP’s power structure,” added the political journalist, who has tracked the affairs of the BJP and the RSS for over two decades.

Anand argued that “political signals increasingly suggest that if Modi were to step aside post-2029—at age 79—the succession, if any, would still favour an OBC leader, not merely the most visible strongman.”

And if Modi chooses to continue, the debate ends before it begins, he said.

“In BJP politics, ambition matters—but arithmetic matters more. And right now, the numbers are speaking louder than names,” Anand concluded.

(This report is on basis of monologue by MANISH ANAND for The Raisina Hills. Subscribe the channel for concise videos of geopolitics and politics)