Bihar Polls 2025: BJP Decodes Perils of Nibbling at Nitish Kumar

The Opposition has latched onto signals from the BJP camp on uncertain future of Kumar to fancy chinks in the EBCs vote base of the JD (U).

By MANISH ANAND

New Delhi, October 26, 2025 — With Bihar Assembly elections 2025 entering decisive phase, the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) appears admitting that the cost of nibbling at incumbent Chief Minister Nitish Kumar may prove self-damaging. The BJP seems encouraging party’s Bihar faces from own ranks and allies to talk favourably of the Chief Minister. The Opposition has latched onto signals from the BJP camp on uncertain future of Kumar to fancy chinks in the EBCs (extremely backward castes) vote base of the Janata Dal (United).

The statement of Union Minister for Home Affairs Amit Shah that the NDA MLAs will decide the next CM if the alliance won the elections gave fodder to rumour mills on conspiracy theories within the NDA camp. In a House of 243 MLAs, conspiracy theory enthusiasts worked the arithmetic.

The BJP, if the party could work the 89 percent magical strike rate of Maharashtra state polls, could fancy chances by winning about 85 seats. The Lok Jan Shakti Party (Ram Vilas) with similar strike rate could net about 15 seats, argued the conspiracy theorists.

Out of 12 seats allocated to the RLSP and the HAM, a tally of eight seats can help the BJP foist own CM in Patna, they argued. Remaining numbers to cross the halfway mark of 122 could come from post-poll surgeries in other political parties could fall in the realm of skills of the BJP strategists, they added.

But the BJP leaders in Bihar grew wary that the messages emerging about Nitish Kumar could only prove self-damaging. At core of the BJP-JD (U) social engineering lies exclusivity of the caste support bases, stated party leaders in Bihar.

Nitish Kumar’s hold on 36 percent EBCs complement the upper caste support base of the BJP to give an edge to the NDA over the Opposition’s Mahagathbandhan. But the edge is too thin for the BJP to allow chinks in the NDA camp.

Rashtriya Janata Dal (RJD) by fielding a large number of EBC candidates is seeking to make inroads into the vote base of the JD (U). The RJD is also seeking to exploit the unhappiness of RLSP chief and former Union Minister Upendra Kushwaha for disappointment at being given just six seats to contest. The RJD has fielded a good number of Kushwaha candidates in the Bihar Assembly elections.

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About The Author

Manish Anand

Manish Anand is a senior journalist with more than two decades of hardcore reporting on beats such as Prime Minister’s Office, Parliament, BJP, Congress, Planning Commission, NITI Aayog, and scores of Union Ministries.

His past has been with The New Indian Express, The Asian Age/Deccan Chronicle, and The Statesman.

For about 15 years, Manish was also a regular commentator and host for talks on AIR on foreign affairs.

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