Bihar: Expert Warns on Perils of Treating Exit Polls as ‘Exact Polls’
RJD leader Tejashwvi Yadav addresses a meeting in Patna! (Image Tejashwi Yadav)
Veteran journalist says even 2024 Lok Sabha projections proved off-mark; warns that most Bihar election surveys since 2000 have failed to match actual results.
By TRH Political Desk
New Delhi, November 12, 2025 — Senior journalist Urmilesh has cautioned viewers and political observers against putting blind faith in opinion and exit polls, especially in the context of the upcoming Bihar Assembly elections. Writing on Facebook, the veteran commentator noted that while some polls have been accurate, the majority have often turned out to be completely wrong.
“Opinion and Exit Polls shown on TV Puram have sometimes been correct. But most have turned out wrong! Why talk too old—just see the numbers of opinion and exit polls in the 2024 Lok Sabha elections and how they turned out wrong,” Urmilesh wrote.
He pointed out that almost every national poll in 2024 had projected a landslide for the BJP, yet the party fell short of the majority mark, eventually forming government only with the support of allies TDP and JD(U).
“That’s why Opinion Poll or Exit Poll should not be mistaken for an Exact Poll,” he added, cautioning viewers that even the Bihar Exit Poll cannot be accepted at face value.
Citing data from DeKoder, Urmilesh observed that 56% of all election surveys conducted in Bihar between 2000 and 2020 proved completely wrong, meaning their projections bore no resemblance to the actual results. The remaining 44%, he said, were only “broadly accurate.”
“If we look at the election surveys regarding the 2025 Bihar elections, we feel it is less likely that they will be completely correct,” he wrote, adding that actual results could differ significantly if the assembly elections are conducted “relatively independently and fairly.”
Urmilesh’s remarks echo a growing skepticism among journalists and analysts about the reliability of pre-election surveys, particularly in complex multi-party states like Bihar, where local factors and last-minute shifts often upend national narratives.
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