Bihar Exit Poll: NDA Landslide with 4% More Votes Than MGB

The P-Marq exit poll projects the BJP-JD(U) alliance comfortably ahead of the RJD-led Mahagathbandhan, with NDA expected to secure 43% of the vote share against MGB’s 39%.

By AMIT KUMAR

Patna, November 11, 2025 — The National Democratic Alliance (NDA) is poised to retain power in Bihar, according to the P-Marq Exit Poll 2025, which predicts a clear majority for the ruling coalition led by the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) and Janata Dal (United).

The survey projects the NDA to win between 142 and 162 seats in the 243-member Bihar Assembly, comfortably crossing the halfway mark of 122. The Mahagathbandhan (MGB) — led by the Rashtriya Janata Dal (RJD) and Congress — is expected to secure 80 to 98 seats.

The vote share projection also gives the NDA a lead with 43%, compared to 39% for the MGB. The Jan Suraaj Party (JSP), led by Prashant Kishor, is projected to secure 1 to 4 seats with 8% of the vote, while Others may win 0 to 3 seats, accounting for 9% of total votes.

Party-wise Breakdown

According to P-Marq, within the NDA:

• BJP is projected to win 68–78 seats,
• JD(U) may secure 62–72 seats, and
• Other NDA partners could claim 9–15 seats.

In the opposition camp:

• RJD is projected to win 63–79 seats,
• Congress (INC) may bag 9–19 seats, and
• Smaller allies together may secure 2–6 seats.

Voting Trends by Gender and Caste

The exit poll reveals a significant gender gap in voting:

• Among male voters, 40% backed the NDA and 41% the MGB.
• Among female voters, NDA support rose to 45%, compared to 39% for the MGB — a critical factor often associated with Nitish Kumar’s social welfare appeal.

In caste-wise voting patterns, the NDA dominated among General (61%), OBC/EBC (59%), and SC/ST (52%) groups, while the MGB maintained strongholds among Yadavs (83%) and Muslims (79%).

Clear Edge for NDA

With an overall error margin of ±3%, the P-Marq survey reinforces a broader trend seen across most exit polls predicting an NDA victory. If the final results mirror these projections, the Nitish Kumar-led alliance will return to power with a renewed mandate, while the RJD-Congress alliance will remain the principal opposition.

(Source: P-Marq Bihar Exit Poll Summary, November 2025)

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About The Author

amitkumar

Amit Kumar is a senior Delhi-based journalist with over two decades of reporting experience. His past has been with The Hindustan Times, Mid-Day, and others.

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