Bihar Elections 2025: NDA Camp Worries Local Anti-incumbency
High-stakes Bihar Elections 2025 warms up! (Images X.com)
Whether pro-incumbency and women’s support can secure another term for Nitish Kumar—or Tejashwi Yadav’s welfare-driven message can swing the tide—remains the key question shaping the state’s political narrative.
By AMIT KUMAR
Purnea, November 10, 2025 — While Bihar defies assumptions of anti-incumbency, the sitting MLAs of the ruling National Democratic Alliance (NDA) are facing anger on the ground. In contrast, the incumbent MLA of the Rashtriya Janata Dal (RJD) are enjoying comfortable position with better people’s ratings on the ground.
There is some localized dissatisfaction against the NDA MLAs. But the ground assessment reveals that incumbent Chief Minister Nitish Kumar almost has neutral observations from the people across regions in the state.
“There is no widespread anger against the Nitish Kumar-led government. However, the NDA cannot rely solely on pro-incumbency, as voter behaviour varies at the constituency level,” said a senior BJP leader who was deputed to look after one region in Bihar.
Within the BJP-JDU alliance, incumbent MLAs face mild anti-incumbency, whereas new faces are performing slightly better. The likes of Maithli Thakur, folk singer, who has been fielded from the Alinagar Assembly seats, is enjoying popular support on the ground. But the same cannot be stated for several of the incumbent MLAs of the BJP and the JD (U).
In contrast, within the RJD-Congress camp, sitting MLAs are doing better than new candidates—indicating some enduring local loyalty but weaker central leadership signals.
While Tejashwi Yadav remains the lone star campaigner for the RJD-led alliance, the BJP has mobilized multiple top leaders across constituencies.
On community voting patterns, traditional blocs such as Muslims and Yadavs remain firmly behind the Mahagathbandhan, with little sign of vote division. Floating voters, however, show no major reason to switch sides. The NDA’s core base—upper castes and EBCs—also remains largely intact.
Both alliances, while focusing on women and employment, differ in approach—NDA stressing infrastructure and growth, and the RJD-led bloc betting on welfare and direct benefits.
As Bihar moves closer to final polling day, the contest appears open yet defined by regional and gendered voting patterns. Whether pro-incumbency and women’s support can secure another term for Nitish Kumar—or Tejashwi Yadav’s welfare-driven message can swing the tide—remains the key question shaping the state’s political narrative.
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