Balkanisation of Syria Likely Possibility amid Assad Ouster

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Türkiye-based Daily Lists 5 Possible Scenarios for Syria

By Raisina Correspondent

New Delhi, December 9: Celebrations of the ouster of Bassar al-Assad regime are sweeping through Syria. But the grim prospects of Syrian civil war further deepening have begun worrying Arabian observers.

Türkiye-backed rebels on Sunday seized power in Damascus. Assad fled to Russia. Assad’s key ally and the security head Major General AlI Mahmoud, who had been the chief of staff for Maher Al Assad, died by suicide in his office before the rebels stormed his 4th division headquarters.

Sabah, a daily in Türkiye, in a report listed five possibilities after the collapse of the Assad regime. The newspaper is known to be close to the Turkish government. It gave various possibilities of Syria disintegrating.

Syria is home to several minority groups, including Christians. Kurds constitute the separate ethnic groups who are engaged in fierce battles with Türkiye-backed rebels.

The Arab world analyst Bercan Tutar wrote in Sabah that the first scenario, which is hard to achieve, may see an emergence of an umbrella alliance of all factions in Syria. This could lead to establishment of democracy in Syria, the analyst argued.

Major powers will conveniently back such a prospect, stated the analyst. The US, Russia, Türkiye, the European Union, and others may like to support the idea of a democratic federation.

Israel gave indications of possibilities for Syria in days to come as the defence forces reportedly occupied the buffer zone in Golan Heights with the war-ravaged country. Assad was an ally of Iran and Russia. Israel may want to turn Syria’s stance in geo-strategic realm on its head by helping install an anti-Iran regime, argued the analyst with Sabah as another possibility.

Türkiye-backed rebels had yesterday taken Syria’s Prime Minister Mohammad Ghazi al-Jalali in custody. Jalali later told reporters that he would oversee a smooth transfer of power.

Sabah in its report stated an Islamic Republic of Syria is also a possibility. This can consist of representatives of Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTAS). This outfit is designated as a terrorist organization by the US and Russia. Russian news agency TASS in a report said that HTAS is a new avatar of Jabhat al-Nusra.

“With HTAS leading the new regime in Syria, Salafi stream of Islam may get centre stage, which is not inimical to Israel or the US,” added Sabah. Salafi is a movement in Sunni Islam.

Besides, the daily stated that Israel may help install an anti-Shiite regime in Syria. Israel can bring together the anti-Iran forces active in Lebanon and Syria to take centre stage, argued the analyst.

Israel has already given a sever blow to the capabilities of the Hezbollah in Lebanon. The Arabian observers believe that Israel in a span of the last two months has eliminated the top, middle and even the lower rung of the leadership of the Hezbollah.

Sabah in its report also stated that a US-led Federative Republic of Syria is another possibility. Lastly, Syria, added Sabah, could be headed for split and disintegration.

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