AUKUS in Indo Pacific ring; future war theatre takes shape
By Manish Anand
New Delhi, March 22: After hamstringing Russia in its floundering Ukraine War, the West is steeping up heat on China by building the Indo Pacific war. The AUKUS base in Australia. With nuclear-powered submarines, unveiled in the Naval Base Point Lama announcement, being made available to Australia, strategic thinkers have begun thinking loud of the future war theatre in East Asia.
Former diplomat Yogesh Gupta is of the view that the nuclear-powered submarines for Australia is a long time down the line, which may even take several years to fructify. But still Australian shift into the American axis in the Indo Pacific is now certain. Canberra also appears ready to pay the collateral cost, as trade with Beijing may take a serious hit. Australia is a dairy and coal powerhouse, and both are in high demand in China.
AUKUS focus in the Indo Pacific clearly makes Australia an important launchpad for the US-led western alliance bid to fight off China whenever Taiwan lights the war fuse in East Asia. Conventional submarines would have been no match for Australia to square off with China’s bloated nuclear-powered naval strength with which it dominates the South China Sea, Pacific and the Indian Ocean.
“There are strategic costs to weakening the discipline behind the Defence of Australia doctrine if that is where we are heading. It takes us further away from the longstanding objective of being able to defend Australia harnessing the US alliance but without relying on the combat assistance of the United States,” wrote Peter Varghese in Financial Review.
Gupta further wrote on his timeline that nuclear submarines are years away, but “who knows how the world would look like then”. It is not an immediate worry for Beijing, he said, adding “as long as the Australian government doesn’t poke Beijing on other issues, this marriage of convenience would work benefitting both. China generally doesn’t approach such issues emotionally. They are cold and hard headed people who know how to cater for their interests”.
However, Kevin Magee, a former diplomat of Australia, underlined that “there is some disquiet in Australian government circles that the AUKUS announcement and Defence review could put brakes on the improvement of trade relations and the removal of trade sanctions”.
With AUKUS closely collaborating with other Quad members in navy exercises, the Australian pivot may acquire a much larger role amid China under Xi Jinping’s third term as President of the Communist country seeks to rewrite the world order on its terms.