Alaska Summit’s High-Stakes Gamble and Three Likely Scenarios

Alaska Summit is a mirror for illusions of strongmen, the resilience of smaller nations, and the dilemmas of middle powers like India

By P SESH KUMAR

NEW DELHI, August 14, 2025 — As Donald Trump and Vladimir Putin prepare to meet in Alaska, coincidentally on the eve of India’s 79^th Independence Day, the world holds its breath. The war in Ukraine has dragged on with devastating consequences, and this summit could either open a crack in the wall of violence or seal it shut.

From rosy scenarios of ceasefire breakthroughs to grim possibilities of total collapse, the Alaska summit is a test of brinkmanship, ego, and diplomacy. We may encounter three likely outcomes — optimistic, middling, and pessimistic.

Amid Russia’s hardline concerns, Ukraine’s uncompromising stand, Washington’s political calculus, India tiptoes between its old ally Moscow and strategic partner Washington. What emerges is a stark realization: Alaska is not just about the fate of Ukraine, but about the balance of power from Europe to Asia. And Indian expectations are not inconsiderable.

The Promise of Alaska

Summits between great powers are part theatre, part trial. Anchorage, draped in its icy symbolism, now hosts the two most polarizing figures in world politics. Donald Trump arrives promising to end the Ukraine war quickly, frustrated by Russia’s continuing onslaught and eager for a win that burnishes his presidential stature.

And immodest Nobel Peace Prize ambitions. Vladimir Putin comes determined not to retreat, to leverage the talks for sanction relief, and to demonstrate that Russia remains a peer power able to draw an American president to its terms.

For Ukraine, President Volodymyr Zelenskyy watches nervously. His nation bleeds daily, his people long for respite, but he knows that peace at the expense of sovereignty is no peace at all. He has warned bluntly: no surrendering of land. The European allies echo him — borders cannot be changed by force, and no peace deal should be cut over Ukraine’s head.

India, for its part, is the silent observer with the loudest stakes. Dependent on Russian oil and arms yet wooed by Washington’s strategic embrace, New Delhi has prayed for precisely such a summit: a diplomatic turn that lowers the temperature and spares India the agony of choosing sides. More important, a relief from Trump induced tariffs and penalties. But Alaska is a gamble, and the dice could roll in very different directions.

Scenario One: The Optimistic Breakthrough

The best-case outcome is one where Trump and Putin pull off the unthinkable: a ceasefire, perhaps informal, perhaps fragile, but enough to stop the carnage. Trump could declare he has “brought peace to Europe,” Putin could boast that Russia retains its gains without conceding defeat, and Zelenskyy could cautiously accept a pause that buys his country time and lives.

In this scenario, Putin halts his offensives and tacitly agrees to freeze battle lines, in exchange for Trump softening sanctions or delaying punitive economic steps. Trump promises a rapid follow-up trilateral summit with Ukraine. Europe breathes easier, and even Kyiv, while anxious about de facto partitions, welcomes the silence of guns after months of bombardment.

For India, this is the dream. A ceasefire eases Western scrutiny of its Russian oil purchases, postpones Trump’s threatened 50% tariffs on Indian exports, and unclogs delayed Russian defence supplies like the S-400 system. Energy prices stabilize, trade tensions cool, and India’s tightrope walk seems suddenly less precarious.

A peace path in Alaska would validate New Delhi’s strategy of cautious neutrality and allow it to resume business as usual with both Washington and Moscow.

Scenario Two: The Middling Stalemate

The more likely scenario, however, is one of gestures without substance. Trump and Putin may emerge with vague talk of “progress,” announce working groups on grain exports or prisoner swaps, but fail to secure the one thing Ukraine craves: a ceasefire.

Putin, in this outcome, gives away crumbs but no real concessions. He avoids Trump’s wrath just enough to prevent harsher sanctions, keeps fighting in Ukraine, and uses the time to regroup his military.

Trump trumpets minor wins as evidence of his deal-making, but critics at home and abroad call the summit inconclusive. Zelenskyy, relieved that no betrayal occurred, nonetheless laments the continuation of war. Europe urges Trump not to let Putin string him along.

For India, this is an extension of the status quo. On the one hand, the absence of a blow-up means Trump might postpone tariffs and sanctions as he keeps talking to Putin. On the other, the unresolved conflict keeps India under pressure: its Russian oil imports remain controversial, its defence purchases vulnerable to U.S. disapproval. New Delhi gains time but no reprieve. The balancing act continues, the tightrope stretches thinner, and the risk of a sudden lurch in either direction persists.

Scenario Three: The Pessimistic Collapse

The nightmare is simple: talks fail, acrimony spills out, and Trump slams Putin for not being “serious about peace.” Putin doubles down militarily, escalating offensives to prove his defiance. The US and Europe respond with punishing new sanctions, perhaps even cutting deeper into Russian oil and gas flows.

Trump, stung by failure, may finally enforce those crushing tariffs on India, blaming its Russian oil trade for bankrolling Putin’s war.

Ukraine in this scenario steels itself for a longer, bloodier war, vindicated in its belief that Putin never intended compromise. NATO rallies, pouring more weapons into Kyiv, while Russia leans harder on China for lifelines. The global economy shudders with renewed energy spikes and market tremors.

For India, this is the worst-case trap. US-India ties could sour under the weight of tariffs and accusations, while India-Russia ties, though warmer, would carry heavier costs as New Delhi risks secondary sanctions and the reputational burden of being Moscow’s economic crutch.

Even worse, a Russia more beholden to China complicates India’s security calculus along the Himalayan frontier. The dream of “strategic autonomy” curdles into a nightmare of forced choices, neither ally fully reliable, both demanding loyalty.

India’s Stakes and Expectations

Why does Alaska matter so much to India? Because every outcome reverberates through New Delhi’s fragile geometry of alliances.

In the optimistic ceasefire, India is vindicated as a wise balancer: its Russian oil lifeline preserved, its US partnership unharmed, its defence pipelines unclogged. In the middling muddle, India survives but continues sweating under the possibility of tariffs and sanctions, buying time but not clarity.

In the pessimistic collapse, India is cornered, forced to curtail Russian trade under US pressure or risk jeopardizing the very partnership it sees as critical to countering China.

At heart, India expects — and quietly prays — for Trump and Putin to at least keep talking. For New Delhi, the worst is not a bad deal; it is no deal, no talks, and a new Cold War that splits the world again into rigid camps. India has no appetite for choosing sides. It wants stability, cheap oil, reliable arms, open trade with the US, and room to rise without being squeezed by sanctions or great-power coercion. Alaska, improbably, holds that possibility — but also its negation.

Weighing Thin Ice of Diplomacy

The Alaska summit is less about the barren snowfields of Anchorage and more about the slippery ice beneath global politics. Trump seeks to prove his art of the deal, Putin to prove his staying power, Zelenskyy to prove his nation cannot be bartered away. Europe wants peace without betrayal, India wants balance without sacrifice.

Three doors open in Alaska: behind one lies a ceasefire and a fragile hope; behind the second, delay and drift; behind the third, collapse and confrontation. Which door swings wide will shape not just the fate of Ukraine but the geopolitical destiny of India, trapped between its old friend Moscow and its indispensable partner Washington.

In the end, Alaska is not just a summit. It is a mirror. It reflects the illusions of strongmen, the resilience of smaller nations, and the dilemmas of middle powers like India. Whether the meeting produces peace, pretence, or peril, India’s role as the balancer in an unbalanced world will only grow sharper. For now, all it can do is watch, wait, and hope that in the frozen north, diplomacy does not crack under the weight of its own contradictions.

(This is an opinion piece, and views expressed are those of the author only)

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