BJP leaders flag 90%+ voting, migrant mobilisation, and Mamata Banerjee factor as key variables ahead of verdict
By MANISH ANAND
New Delhi, May 3, 2026 — “We really don’t yet know the consequences of voters’ surge in the West Bengal Assembly elections. Roughly, a three percent voters’ surge factor is making us to keep fingers crossed,” said a BJP functionary, who returned to the national capital after days spent in the election management in the state.
With the verdict set to be out by noon on Monday, the BJP leaders are discussing the West Bengal elections for significance and scale, as well as the likely influence on politics within the party and outside. “Not just Prime Minister Narendra Modi, even Union Minister for Home Affairs Amit Shah his stakes in the outcome of the West Bengal elections. The verdict will impact both, either way,” said another senior BJP functionary.
For the BJP leaders, the West Bengal SIR is not animating them. They are trying to dissect the true imports of over 90 percent voters’ turnouts in West Bengal. Post-Independence, highest voting record now stands broken by West Bengal in the second phase at close to 92 percent, which had earlier been held by Tripura’s feat in 2013.
“Migrant workers from West Bengal — domestic helps, hospitality staffs, street vendors, and others — were mobilised in an unprecedented manner in the state’s two-phase elections. They were largely mobilised by the Trinamool Congress. This was at a scale that we couldn’t achieve in the Bihar Assembly elections,” said the BJP’s election strategist.
He stated that “a war of rumours was fought between the TMC and the BJP on the social media.” “The TMC digital warriors connected with Bengali migrant workers with their information campaigns, which included that if they didn’t vote then their names from the electoral roll could get struck off,” said the BJP strategist.
The BJP’s election managers claimed that no definitive claims could be made on the possible outcomes of the polls. “A two to three percent voters’ swing either way will shape the poll outcome. We cannot say if that swing is in favour of the BJP,” said another BJP election manager, who returned to Delhi from West Bengal.
The counting of votes for 293 of the total 294 Assembly constituency will be undertaken on Monday, May 4. The Election Commission has called for a repolling in the Falta Assembly seat.
The BJP leaders are also weighing the Mamata Banerjee factor in the West Bengal elections. “The BJP’s lack of a credible mass woman leader was felt in the West Bengal elections. Women voters shape the poll outcomes in West Bengal. Besides, a string of positive mandates for incumbent governments due to women supports in Maharashtra, Haryana, Jharkhand, and Bihar also calls for caution in writing off Mamata Banerjee as she runs a women-centric welfare government model only,” said the BJP election strategist.
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