New CNN polling shows a -45 net approval among independents, dragging JD Vance’s 2028 prospects to an all-time low
By TRH World Desk
New Delhi, April 4, 2026 — US President Donald Trump has recorded the worst net approval rating among independent voters of any second-term president in American history, according to new polling data presented on CNN — a figure that places him nearly 10 points below Richard Nixon at the height of the Watergate scandal, months before Nixon resigned.
The data, described by CNN analysts as “eye-popping,” shows Trump’s net approval among independents has collapsed to levels that make even the most politically damaged presidencies of the modern era look comparatively stable.
The Numbers
Trump’s net approval rating among independents stands at figures that dwarf the independent-voter collapses of his most embattled predecessors at the equivalent point in their second terms.
George W. Bush, weighed down by the Iraq War at this stage of his second term, posted a net approval of -37 among independents. Richard Nixon, facing impeachment hearings in 1974 and weeks from resignation, recorded -36. Trump is nearly 10 points worse than Nixon’s Watergate-era floor.
“Donald Trump now has the worst net approval rating among independents of any president ever at this point in term two,” CNN anchor Harry Enten said on air. “He is worse than Richard Nixon — who would be going adios in a few months — and worse than George W. Bush when the Iraq War was weighing him down,” said CNN analyst.
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Republican Alarm
The data is landing in Washington at a particularly sensitive moment. Congressional Republicans facing midterm-cycle elections in the coming months are watching the independent voter collapse with what CNN described as “a lot of trepidation” — independents being the decisive swing bloc in virtually every competitive House and Senate race.
A president polling this poorly among the centre of the electorate poses a structural liability for down-ballot candidates who cannot easily distance themselves from the White House without alienating their own base.
The Vance Fallout
The damage is already radiating toward the party’s 2028 ambitions. Vice President JD Vance, widely considered the presumptive frontrunner for the Republican presidential nomination, has seen his odds collapse in tandem with Trump’s numbers.
Six months ago, prediction market Kalshi rated Vance’s chances of becoming the 2028 Republican nominee at 53%. That figure has now fallen to 37% — tied for his all-time low — with CNN analysts noting there is “no sign of a bottom” to the decline.
“A slow and steady drop, my goodness gracious, with no sign of a bottom,” Enten observed on air.
Vance’s political fate is structurally tied to Trump’s approval trajectory. As long as independent voters remain this alienated from the administration, the Vice President inherits both the brand and its liabilities heading into the next presidential cycle.
Historical Context
Nixon resigned the presidency in August 1974 following the release of the White House tapes and the collapse of his congressional support. Bush never recovered his pre-Iraq approval ratings. No second-term president has previously sunk this low among independents and recovered politically in any meaningful sense before leaving office.
Trump cannot constitutionally seek a third term, but the implications for his party, his legislative agenda, and his political legacy are significant — particularly if the independent collapse persists into 2026 midterm territory.
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