Former Kyrgyz PM Djoomart Otorbaev Warns Washington’s Iran Strategy Is Forging the Very Alliance It Feared Most
By TRH World Desk
New Delhi, March 18, 2026 — US President Donald Trump once vowed to drive a wedge between Vladimir Putin and Xi Jinping. Fourteen months into his second term, he has achieved the opposite.
That is the stark assessment of Djoomart Otorbaev, former Prime Minister of the Kyrgyz Republic, who argues that Trump’s escalating confrontation with Iran — far from isolating America’s adversaries — is accelerating a strategic convergence that Washington has long feared.
“His Middle East strategy is not dividing rival groups; it is uniting them,” Otorbaev wrote in a post on LinkedIn. “The mechanism is straightforward: systemic instability drives strategic alignment.”
Energy: From Opportunity to Dependency
The most immediate consequences are playing out in global energy markets. With the Strait of Hormuz effectively blocked, China faces a critical supply shock — nearly half of its crude oil imports transit this narrow passage. Russian hydrocarbons, already a growing presence in bilateral trade, are rapidly shifting from opportunistic purchases to essential dependencies.
“What initially aimed to diversify energy sources is quickly evolving into a strategic reliance,” Otorbaev warns.
The paradox, he argues, is built into Trump’s own pressure campaign. Sanctions and the threat of war are pushing Russia and China closer together economically — while simultaneously giving Beijing greater leverage over Moscow. The stable energy-and-finance alliance that the White House once feared as a worst-case scenario is quietly becoming a reality.
The Gulf Recalculates
The realignment is equally striking in the Gulf. Rather than driving Tehran into isolation, Trump’s Iran strategy is pushing it toward cautious reconciliation with its traditional rivals.
Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman has moved from confrontation to careful engagement with Iran — driven not by trust, Otorbaev notes, but by necessity. Gulf monarchies are increasingly concluding that uncontrolled escalation poses a greater threat to their stability than a managed détente.
“Backchannel diplomacy, defence hedging, and clear refusals to engage in US operations indicate a subtle yet significant change,” he observes. While public statements continue to criticise Tehran, the underlying strategy has shifted decisively toward de-escalation and coexistence.
A Stress Test for the Global Economy
The broader stakes, Otorbaev warns, are enormous. Oil prices exceeding $100 per barrel are not merely market signals — they represent a stress test for the entire global economy. Prolonged disruption risks stagflation, fragmented supply chains, and a fundamental restructuring of global trade routes.
What is emerging, he argues, is a new pattern of “asymmetrical interdependence”: China relying on Russia, Russia depending on China, and the Gulf cautiously aligning with Iran. All are hedging against the same core risk — the unpredictability of the United States under Donald Trump.
“As Washington attempts to control the system, it unintentionally speeds up the creation of parallel alliances,” Otorbaev concludes. “If the conflict persists, the repercussions will extend beyond the region to affect the entire planet.”
(Djoomart Otorbaev served as Prime Minister of the Kyrgyz Republic. He writes on geopolitics and global energy strategy.)
Matt Gaetz Warns: China Uses Hollywood for Strategic Leverage
Follow The Raisina Hills on WhatsApp, Instagram, YouTube, Facebook, and LinkedIn
