Geopolitical tensions in the Strait of Hormuz are disrupting fertilizer supply chains, with experts warning of long-term implications for global food security and agricultural output.
By TRH World Desk
New Delhi, May 2, 2026 — The ongoing tensions linked to the Strait of Hormuz are beginning to trigger far-reaching consequences beyond oil markets, with global agriculture now facing a growing fertilizer crisis that could impact food security worldwide.
Speaking to Al Arabiya English, Derek Grossman, Professor of Political Science and International Relations, warned that disruptions caused by the Iran conflict are significantly constraining fertilizer exports from the Middle East, sending prices sharply higher.
“The Iran war isn’t just affecting oil and politics; it’s having this massive impact on fertilizer supply, which is causing ripple effects across global agriculture,” Grossman said.
He explained that producers in the Middle East are struggling to export fertilizer due to blockades and counter-blockades affecting shipping routes through the Strait of Hormuz, a critical chokepoint for global trade. “The producers within the Middle East of fertilizer are simply not able to export their products as easily or maybe at all through the Strait of Hormuz because of the blockade and the counter blockade,” he noted.
The supply disruption has already begun to reflect in prices. According to Grossman, fertilizer prices have surged by more than 80% in recent months, with key agricultural inputs witnessing steep spikes. “We’re seeing fertilizer prices soar by over 80%,” he said, adding that the impact is especially pronounced in essential components such as urea and ammonia.
Highlighting the scale of dependency on this maritime route, Grossman pointed out that approximately 30% of global urea shipments pass through the Strait of Hormuz, making it particularly vulnerable to disruptions. “Certain products like global urea — about 30% of it goes through the Strait of Hormuz — so the price of that is going up,” he said.
Similarly, ammonia—another critical chemical used in fertilizer production—has also been affected. “About 25% of ammonia shipments go through the Strait, and these are critical components to the fertilization process for crops for next year,” Grossman added.
Experts warn that the consequences of the supply crunch may not be immediate but could manifest strongly in the next agricultural cycle. With fertilizers being a key input for crop yields, any sustained shortage or price escalation could lead to reduced production, higher food prices, and increased vulnerability in import-dependent nations.
Grossman underscored the long-term implications, cautioning that the situation could evolve into a broader food security crisis. “This is going to have a ripple effect for food security—or insecurity—as it were over the coming year and possibly longer,” he said.
The development comes at a time when global food systems are already under pressure from climate disruptions, supply chain bottlenecks, and geopolitical instability. Countries heavily reliant on fertilizer imports, particularly in Asia and Africa, may face the brunt of the crisis if the situation persists.
While policymakers worldwide are closely monitoring the situation, there are concerns that prolonged instability in the region could further aggravate both energy and food markets simultaneously. Analysts suggest that unless maritime routes stabilize soon, the cascading effects on agriculture could deepen, making food inflation a major global challenge in the months ahead.
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