By S. JHA
China now controls roughly 60% of global EV sales, 75% of production, and over 80% of battery manufacturing. As BYD expands worldwide and the US doubles down on protectionism, the electric vehicle revolution is becoming a contest for industrial supremacy, not just market share.
Mumbai, May 31, 2026 — Former Kyrgyz Prime Minister Djoomart Otorbaev believes that China has already won the industrial race of the 21st century. Distilling one of the defining economic realities of the 21st century into a simple proposition, Otorbaev states that “the global automotive industry is no longer divided between East and West.” He asserted that it is increasingly divided between those embracing electrification and others attempting to slow it down.
To support his argument, Otorbaev mentioned the latest projections from the International Energy Agency (IEA). It suggests that this divide is widening rapidly, Otorbaev added in a post on LinkedIn.
“Global electric vehicle (EV) sales crossed 20 million units in 2025. For 2026, the projection aims at 23 million. That will be nearly 30 per cent of all vehicles sold worldwide,” added Otorbaev.
He further argued that “what was once viewed as an environmental policy objective has become the central battleground of industrial competition.” Otorbaev argues that China sits at the heart of this transformation.
“China today accounts for roughly 60 per cent of global EV sales and nearly three-quarters of global production. China dominates the most strategic segment of the value chain: battery manufacturing,” wrote Otorbaev, adding: “With more than 80 per cent of global battery cell production capacity and a commanding position in mineral processing, China has built an ecosystem that is difficult for competitors to replicate.”
He noted that the “Chinese dominance was not accidental.” “Beijing began investing in battery technologies, charging infrastructure, critical minerals, and domestic EV champions more than a decade before most Western governments recognized the scale of the coming transition,” added Otorbaev.
He stressed that “Chinese firms now enjoy advantages not only in manufacturing scale but also in supply-chain integration and cost efficiency.”
He cites the rise of Chinese automaker BYD to illustrate his arguments. “Once viewed as a regional player, BYD emerged as a global powerhouse, overtaking Tesla in vehicle volumes,” Otorbaev wrote, while adding that the Chinese EV giant has now “aggressively expanded into markets across Asia, Latin America, Europe, and Africa.”
“Unlike many Western manufacturers, BYD controls large portions of its supply chain, enabling it to produce technologically competitive vehicles at significantly lower prices,” he added.
The analyst further asserted that the “contrast with the United States is becoming increasingly stark.” “Washington has responded to China’s lead through tariffs, localisation mandates, and industrial subsidies designed to strengthen domestic manufacturing,” wrote Otorbaev.
But he warned that “these measures may protect American jobs and industries in the short term, but they also risk creating a more insulated and expensive EV market.” “Consumers ultimately face higher prices, while domestic manufacturers remain shielded from the full force of global competition,” he added.
Making projections for the coming years, Otorbaev stated that “China by 20230 could approach 80 per cent EV penetration in new vehicle sales, while Europe may near 60 per cent.” “If the United States lags significantly behind, the implications will extend far beyond automobiles,” he added.
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