By S. JHA
Bitcoin Down 50% from ATH: Six Causes of the 2026 Crash
Mumbai, June 9, 2026 — According to CoinMarketCap data, Bitcoin reached a fresh all-time high of $126,198 on Monday, October 6, 2025. Eight months later, the price of Bitcoin stood at $63,563.66 on June 8, 2026 — approximately a $42,225 drop compared with one year ago — putting the decline from peak at roughly 50%.
The retreat unfolded in two stages. Bitcoin reached a new all-time high of $126,198 in October 2025 before experiencing a sharp retracement, closing the year near $87,000 amid fading momentum and macro uncertainty. The real collapse came in 2026, when a cascade of interconnected shocks arrived in quick succession.
The worst single week came in early June. Bitcoin was trading at $77,300 on Sunday, June 1. By Tuesday morning it had broken below $70,000 for the first time since April. By Wednesday morning it touched $65,372 — a drop of 11–15% in 72 hours. After touching lows near $60,000 last week, the price recovered to trade around $63,800.
Six documented catalysts explain how it got here.
First, geopolitics and an oil shock. Three main reasons are behind the crash: the U.S.–Iran conflict, the Federal Reserve, and Strategy. The conflict continuously pushed up crude oil prices, and rising oil prices directly increased corporate transportation and production costs, thereby fueling overall inflationary pressure and undermining the Federal Reserve’s rate-cut plans. Some Fed officials even stated they would not rule out interest rate hikes.
Second, Strategy’s sale. Strategy’s first Bitcoin sale since 2022 was among the key reasons behind the June 4 sell-off, alongside stalled US–Iran negotiations, continued ETF outflows, and weaker macro data weighing on overall risk sentiment.
Third, a sustained ETF exodus. US spot Bitcoin ETFs experienced a loss of $2.7 billion in one week ending around June 5, 2026, contributing to Bitcoin’s price decline and shifting investor interest away from Bitcoin toward other assets like AI and semiconductor stocks.
Fourth, the Mt. Gox supply overhang. On June 2 at 04:47 UTC, the Mt. Gox estate transferred 10,422 BTC — worth approximately $739 million — in a single transaction, its largest on-chain movement in months. The creditor repayment deadline approaches in October 2026, meaning the supply overhang threat is real.
Fifth, rotation into AI stocks. Crypto analyst Lark Davis pointed to a possible rotation into AI stocks and noted that the growing divergence between Bitcoin and technology stocks challenges the popular view that Bitcoin simply trades as a high-beta version of the Nasdaq.
Sixth, a leverage cascade. On June 5, 2026, Bitcoin breached the critical $62,000 support level, causing massive liquidations of leveraged long positions totalling $1.5 billion, signalling a broad risk-off sentiment in the market.
The Fear & Greed Index is currently displaying a score of 12, indicating extreme fear. Over the last 30 days, Bitcoin has had only 10 out of 30 green days.
The $60,000 zone is now widely cited as the critical floor. The support zone between $60,200 and $62,240 is the key level to watch. As long as Bitcoin holds above it, the near-term bounce can continue developing. A sustained break below it would likely trigger another wave of forced selling.
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