From Barak Valley’s restive Muslim voters to T-tribe grievances across 50 seats, ground reports suggest BJP’s Assam hat-trick is far from the walkover its leaders claim.
By MANISH ANAND
New Delhi, April 5, 2026 — Two Barak Valley Muslim youths were assertive in their claims: Badruddin Ajmal is responsible for bringing the BJP to power in Assam. They were also more assertive to state: the politics of Ajmal is finished.
They had boarded the newly launched Rajdhani from Sairan in Mizoram to Anand Vihar in the national capital. They were anguished that the Railways provided for just two bottles of 1-litre water for a 48-hour journey.
“Tell me, wat does a doctor say. Shouldn’t we take at least three liters of water daily. We have paid over ₹6,000 each for the train journey. Is this the way passengers should be treated,” Mohammed Kabir said.
“We are from the Barak valley. We’re Bengali speaking Muslims. We’re not Bangladeshis,” he spoke matter-of-factly. Kabir said that he had two-day of business works in Delhi, and he would return to Assam quickly.
The Barak Valley in Assam has emerged as a key electoral battleground. The region is restive against the ruling BJP for unkept promises.
Prime Minister Narendra Modi has sought to beat the anti-incumbency with his personal outreach. For that, Modi mingled with tea-estate workers, claiming fraternity due to his “chaiwallah background.”
Assam Chief Minister Himanta Biswa Sarma is pivoting the state Assembly elections on sharp identity lines. The BJP’s blitzkrieg has gone all guns blazing. Uttar Pradesh Chief Minister Yogi Adityanath is rallying the BJP’s key poll pivot in Assam.
The BJP leaders believe that the win in Assam is easy. There’s no contest, they argue. Delimitation of Assembly seats and the political Hindutva should see the BJP home comfortably, argue the BJP leaders.
But stress lies under the surface. The T-tribe voters with influence in 50 seats are counting grievances. Jharkhand Chief Minister Hemant Soren is pitching the bow and arrow poll symbol to get the scheduled tribes’ status for them. The BJP will hope that Soren’s JMM will split the disgruntled voters.
But political observers in Guwahati argue that fringe players such as the JMM and AIUDF will not be cutting votes in any impactful manner. At best, they will assert their bargaining powers for the next elections.
“It’s a direct fight between the BJP-led NDA and the Congress. Ajmal’s AIUDF is decimated and his party will vanish in this election,” added Kabir’s companion, Shabir Ahmed. “The Muslims are voting en-bloc for the Congress.”
Political observers argue that the BJP’s ascendance in Assam had come from the split in the Muslim vote base, as well as polarisation of the Hindu vote base. They argued that both the factors are rupturing in the Assembly elections in 2026.
Assam Tea Tribe Emerges Kingmaker with Influence on 50 Seats
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